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NATIONAL SECURITY

Cuban Missile Crisis

Multi-INT Crisis Analysis — October 1962

SIMULATION OVERVIEW

October 15, 1962. A U-2 reconnaissance aircraft returns from a routine overflight of Cuba. The photographs, developed overnight at NPIC, are unambiguous: Soviet medium-range ballistic missile sites are under construction at San Cristobal. They will be operational within weeks. President Kennedy is briefed the following morning. He immediately convenes a secret advisory group - ExComm - to develop U.S. options. But before any decision can be made, the intelligence picture must be complete. Thirteen days of crisis will follow. At stake is the possibility of nuclear war. Your team is one of five discipline-specific intelligence cells feeding analysis into the ExComm process. Your assessment will ultimately be presented to decision-makers operating under extreme time pressure.

Source CredibilityKey Assumptions CheckSynthesis

SIM PARAMETERS

TRACK

National Security

ROUNDS

DURATION

2h 15m

TEAM MODEL

Discipline-based teams

POSTURE

PROSPECTIVE

AUDIENCE

Graduate intelligence analysis students, advanced undergraduates, national security professionals

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Apply source credibility evaluation frameworks to a real intelligence crisis

Distinguish IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT, DIPLOMATIC, and OSINT source types and their inherent limitations

Identify and document critical information gaps vs. known unknowns

Perform a Key Assumptions Check when new intelligence challenges prior judgments

Recognize availability heuristic, anchoring, mirror imaging, and confirmation bias in analytical products

Understand how compartmentalization of intelligence disciplines creates systemic blind spots

Appreciate the consequences of unknown unknowns (Soviet submarine B-59 nuclear torpedoes)

HOW IT RUNS

Briefing

Participants receive a scenario overview and their team assignment. Facilitator sets context and opens the document room.

Document Review

Teams examine declassified primary source documents in the shared document room. Each round releases new intelligence as the situation develops.

Analysis & Submission

Teams complete a structured analytic worksheet applying Source Credibility, Key Assumptions Check, and Synthesis, then submit their assessment.

Debrief

Teams compare their analysis against an expert benchmark. AI coaching surfaces analytical gaps, cognitive biases, and key insights.

TEAM ROLES

Each team covers a different intelligence discipline. Teams see different source documents and answer from their lane.

HUMINT Team

Naval Intelligence Team

SIGINT Team

Diplomatic Reporting Team

OSINT Team

All-Source Analysis Team

PRIMARY SOURCE DOCUMENTS

This simulation is populated with real, declassified documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, National Archives, and other primary source repositories. Participants work with the same intelligence picture that analysts faced at the time.

Declassified ExComm transcripts, NSA signals intercepts, CIA photographic intelligence assessments, and State Department cables released under the JFK Assassination Records Act.

DOCUMENT LIBRARY

primary source documents across 3 rounds

CLASSIFICATION

All documents are declassified or in the public domain.

WHO IT IS FOR

Intelligence Studies Programs

Ideal for upper-division or graduate courses in intelligence analysis, national security, or foreign policy. Builds practitioner skills through live simulation.

Professional Development

Used by agencies, think tanks, and defense contractors to train analysts in structured analytic techniques and collaborative assessment.

War Colleges & PME

Integrates with professional military education curricula focused on strategic intelligence and decision support.

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