Yom Kippur War

Analyzing threats under conditions of Groupthink

SIMULATION OVERVIEW

October 6, 1973. On the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, Egyptian and Syrian forces launch a coordinated surprise attack against Israel. It nearly succeeds. Israeli forces suffer catastrophic losses in the first 48 hours. Your team will review the pre-war intelligence record, identify and test assumptions, and deliver an assessment to a hostile policymaker that is guided by a strategic viewpoint that the Arab nations will not attack.

Bias IdentificationDevil's AdvocacyKey Assumptions Check

SIM PARAMETERS

TRACK

National Security

ROUNDS

DURATION

1h 30m

TEAM MODEL

All teams, same materials

POSTURE

PROSPECTIVE

AUDIENCE

Advanced undergraduates in an intelligence or critical-thinking course

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Recognize how shared analytical assumptions affect intelligence assessments

Evaluate evidence across collection disciplines against a prevailing analytical framework

Identify cognitive biases in intelligence reporting

Assess the reliability and significance of source warnings under institutional pressure

Produce a calibrated threat assessment under conditions of high ambiguity

HOW IT RUNS

Briefing

Participants receive a scenario overview and their team assignment. Facilitator sets context and opens the document room.

Document Review

Teams examine declassified primary source documents in the shared document room. Each round releases new intelligence as the situation develops.

Analysis & Submission

Teams complete a structured analytic worksheet applying Bias Identification, Devil's Advocacy, and Key Assumptions Check, then submit their assessment.

Stakeholder Response

An AI-driven decision-maker responds to each team's assessment, reflecting how a real principal would react to the analysis provided.

Debrief

Teams compare their analysis against an expert benchmark. AI coaching surfaces analytical gaps, cognitive biases, and key insights.

PRIMARY SOURCE DOCUMENTS

This simulation is populated with real, declassified documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, National Archives, and other primary source repositories. Participants work with the same intelligence picture that analysts faced at the time.

Declassified CIA post-mortem reports, Agranat Commission findings, DIA warning memoranda, and Israeli and Egyptian military histories.

DOCUMENT LIBRARY

primary source documents across 1 round

CLASSIFICATION

All documents are declassified or in the public domain.

WHO IT IS FOR

Intelligence Studies Programs

Ideal for upper-division or graduate courses in intelligence analysis, national security, or foreign policy. Builds practitioner skills through live simulation.

Professional Development

Used by agencies, think tanks, and defense contractors to train analysts in structured analytic techniques and collaborative assessment.

War Colleges & PME

Integrates with professional military education curricula focused on strategic intelligence and decision support.

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