NATIONAL SECURITY

Mafia Mayhem

Three-Round Intelligence Analysis Exercise

SIMULATION OVERVIEW

December 1985. A powerful New York organized crime family is fracturing from within. The family boss faces mounting federal pressure and has issued directives threatening the financial survival of a rival faction inside his own organization - specifically a narcotics prohibition costing the rival crew tens of millions in annual revenue, and a threat to dissolve the crew entirely. The underboss - the one figure with the authority and relationships to hold the peace - has just died of cancer. His absence removes the only structural constraint keeping the family from open conflict. Your team has access to a multi-source intelligence package spanning HUMINT from confidential informants, SIGINT intercepts, physical surveillance logs, and financial intelligence. The picture they paint is ambiguous, incomplete, and in places contradictory. Your task across three rounds: assess the threat landscape within the family, identify the most probable actors and courses of action, and test the assumptions underlying your analysis as new intelligence comes in.

ACHKey Assumptions Check

SIM PARAMETERS

TRACK

National Security

ROUNDS

DURATION

1h 15m

TEAM MODEL

All teams, same materials

POSTURE

PROSPECTIVE

AUDIENCE

Intelligence analysis students, law enforcement training, national security courses

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Apply Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to evaluate multiple actors across a rich multi-source intelligence package

Distinguish between evidence of motive and evidence of action when evaluating competing hypotheses

Produce properly hedged analytical judgments that distinguish evidence from assumption

Identify and test key assumptions using the Key Assumptions Check (KAC) technique

Demonstrate analytical agility by updating conclusions when new evidence warrants

Recognize how deeply embedded assumptions - particularly about what actors "would never do" - can cause analysts to miss threats hiding in plain sight

HOW IT RUNS

Briefing

Participants receive a scenario overview and their team assignment. Facilitator sets context and opens the document room.

Document Review

Teams examine declassified primary source documents in the shared document room. Each round releases new intelligence as the situation develops.

Analysis & Submission

Teams complete a structured analytic worksheet applying ACH and Key Assumptions Check, then submit their assessment.

Stakeholder Response

An AI-driven decision-maker responds to each team's assessment, reflecting how a real principal would react to the analysis provided.

Debrief

Teams compare their analysis against an expert benchmark. AI coaching surfaces analytical gaps, cognitive biases, and key insights.

PRIMARY SOURCE DOCUMENTS

This simulation is populated with real, declassified documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, National Archives, and other primary source repositories. Participants work with the same intelligence picture that analysts faced at the time.

FBI organized crime surveillance files, court exhibits from U.S. v. Gotti, declassified NYPD intelligence reports, and contemporaneous journalism from 1985–86.

DOCUMENT LIBRARY

primary source documents across 3 rounds

CLASSIFICATION

All documents are declassified or in the public domain.

WHO IT IS FOR

Intelligence Studies Programs

Ideal for upper-division or graduate courses in intelligence analysis, national security, or foreign policy. Builds practitioner skills through live simulation.

Professional Development

Used by agencies, think tanks, and defense contractors to train analysts in structured analytic techniques and collaborative assessment.

War Colleges & PME

Integrates with professional military education curricula focused on strategic intelligence and decision support.

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